我国部分省份经济增长的转移动态特征

Transitional Dynamic Characteristics of Economic Growth in China's Some Provinces

利用包含结构变化的样本自相关函数方法,采取1953—2007年我国21个省份的人均实际GDP数据,从一个新的视角对我国区域经济增长的转移动态特征进行实证分析,其结果表明,我国部分区域经济增长衰减速率表现为非线性振荡特征;除青海省外,样本中的其他省份的转移动态路径并不符合新古典索洛模型以指数收敛的转移动态特征,新古典增长指数收敛模型在刻画我国区域经济增长路径的能力上具有一定的局限性。

This paper uses a kind of autocorrelation function (ACF) approach which accounts for the potential non-stationarity in the mean of the series and uses per capita GDP for Chinese provinces over the period of 1953—2007,and tests those transitional dynamic characteristics of the regional growth path in China.The results show that the characteristics of partial regional growth paths are different,but the speed of convergence is nonlinearity.Except Qinghai Province,the linearized neoclassical growth model fails to replicate the transitional dynamic characteristics of other provinces' economy,and has some limitations in depicting transitional dynamic characteristics of the regional growth path in China.