我国财政支出的收入分配风险探析

A Study on the Income Distribution Risk of China's Fiscal Expenditure

通过构建财政支出收入分配风险指标体系,利用我国1985—2008的数据进行实证研究后发现,我国财政支出收入分配风险程度还比较低,但有逐渐加大的趋势;风险主要来源于收入差距扩大的现状和宏观经济环境指标。在此基础上,用排序选择分析方法分析财政支出主要项目对收入分配风险程度的影响,其主要结论是:支农支出比重的提高有助于降低收入分配风险程度;教育支出、医疗卫生支出和社会保障支出比重提高反而会增加收入分配风险程度;工交商事业费和国防费支出对改善收入分配状况有明显促进作用;基本建设支出、行政管理费支出和政策性补贴支出对降低收入分配风险有促进作用,但效果还不明显。

Through constructing an income distribution risk index system of fiscal expenditure and using China's 1985—2008 data for empirical research,this article finds income distribution risk levels of fiscal expenditure are relatively low in China,but there are gradually increasing tendencies,and the risk mainly comes from the present situation of income gap and macroeconomic environment indicators.On this basis,using an order probit method to analyze influences of fiscal expenditure's main items on income distribution risk degrees,the main conclusions are:to increase the proportion of expenditure on agriculture can help to reduce the risk of income distribution;to increase the share of expenditure on education,health care and social security will increase the risk of income distribution;expenditures on industries,communications and national defense have significant roles in promoting the income distribution situation;expenditures on infrastructure,administration and subsidies can reduce the income distribution risk,but the effect is not obvious.