美元影响油价的国际货币职能视角

On the Influence of US Dollar on Oil Price from the Perspective of Its Functions as International Currency

本文发现美元对油价的影响在2001年前不明显,2001年后明显增强。针对这种现象,我们重新考察了美元对油价的影响机制。认为美元主要通过其在国际上承担的三种职能来影响油价,其中计价与价值储存效应为负,结算效应为正;2001年以前,价值储存效应比较弱,计价与结算两者效应一负一正倾向于相互抵消;而2001以后,价值储存效应明显加大,三种效应两负一正,美元对油价的负面影响显著提高。另外,分析表明中国因素不重要。

The article finds out that the influence of U.S. dollar on oil price was not obvious before 2001, but has become obviously strong since that. In view of this, we reexamines the influencing mechanism of US dollar on oil price, and maintains that US dollar affects oil price though its three functions, among which pricing effect and value storage effect are negative, while settlement effect is positive; before 2011, value storage effect is weak, while pricing and settlement effects offset each other; since then, value storage effect has become obviously strong. Of all the three effects, two are negative and one is positive, so all in all, the negative influence of US dollar on oil prico increased. Besides, the analysis also reveals that China factor doesn＇t count.