人口年龄结构与住宅价格调控

Age Structure of Population and Control of Housing Price

在人口老龄化背景下,当人口总量和年龄结构发生质的变化时,将对住宅价格产生深远影响。本文在人口学研究基础上,有效结合住宅销售价格指数,通过逐步回归的方法获得购房适龄人口数量与住宅价格的关系模型,同时创新性地纳入莱宾斯坦人口发展五阶段理论,通过Logarithmic曲线模型进行量化分析。结论显示,在假定条件下,随着未来适龄购房人口的减少,国内住房价格将在2018年出现拐点并逐步回落,并在2030年前后降至2000年水平(剔除通胀因素),之后将处于长期低迷状态。因此当前在遏制住房价格过快上涨的同时,应从更长远的视角构建调控思路。

Under the background of aging population, when the total population and age structure essentially change, it would have far-reaching effects on housing prices. Based on previous researches of demography, the paper effectively combines with residential sales price index, and builds a relation model between house purchasing age population and housing prices through stepwise regression. Meanwhile, it introduces Leibenstein＇s theory of population and economic growth, and conducts quantitative analysis with Logarithmic curve model. The results reveal that under certain premise, domestic housing prices will reach inflection point in 2018 and gradually fall to the level of 2000 （allowing for inflation） in around 2030. Then it will remain depressed for a long time. In view of this, we should construct long-term line of thinking on controlling housing prices in midst of currently stymieing the rocketing housing prices.