中国食品与非食品间的价格传导机制:理论和实证分析

The Price Conduction Mechanism between Food Inflation and Non-food Inflation in China:Theoretical and Empirical Analysis

本文对食品价格向非食品价格传导机制进行了理论上的分析,提出了成本推动、结构性推动和通胀预期三种传导途径,并建立了一个以食品通胀率和非食品通胀率为变量的向量自回归模型和脉冲响应函数对二者间的传导途径进行实证检验。结果显示:食品价格与非食品价格的传递作用是存在的,食品价格的上涨会对非食品价格造成同向的冲击,并且这种冲击具有稳定的持续效应。另外,我国食品通胀率比非食品通胀率波动性强,如果二者之间传导机制通畅,食品领域的通胀会对非食品领域的通胀水平带来巨大冲击,引发全面通胀的风险。因此,货币政策的制定不应剔除食品价格因素,我国CPI指数中的食品权重应谨慎下调。

The paper theoretically analyzes the conduction mechanism from food prices to non-food prices, and points out three conduction channels： cost push, structural effects and inflation expectation. Meanwhile, a vector auto regression model （VAR） and an impulse response function （IRF）, which set food inflation rate and non-food inflation rate as variables, are established to empirically test the conduction channels. The results reveal that the conduction mechanism between food prices and non-food prices does exist. The rise in food prices will positively impact non- food prices, and such influence is stable and persistent. Besides, China＇s food inflation rate has greater volatility than non-food inflation rate, which means that given smooth conduction, food inflation will bring a substantial shock to non-food inflation, hence may trigger an overall inflation. Therefore, monetary policy should not exclude food prices factor, and we should stay cautious in reducing the weight of food in CPI index.