城市交通拥挤成因及时空演化规律分析——以深圳市为例

Research and Analysis on Causality and Spatial-Temporal Evolution of Urban Traffic Congestions——A Case Study on Shenzhen of China

交通拥挤不仅是当今许多大城市日益严重的社会问题,同时也给国家和城市造成巨大的经济损失.引发拥挤的直接原因是机动车辆保有量的迅速增加和交通设施/服务的相对落后,但对于不同的城市和地区,其深层原因存在差异.本文定位于研究宏观路网交通拥挤内在成因和演化规律,采用地理建模的仿真平台,使用地理信息系统(GIS)技术将FCD数据与深圳市地图匹配,得到城市路网不同时间点的拥挤状态,定性分析区域内交通拥挤的成因.另外,研究针对路段拥挤的相似程度,提出相关性算法进行定量分析,揭示交通拥挤的时空演变规律,为及时采取预防和疏导措施提供指导.该算法可编程实现,对交通拥挤进行统一管理与控制,提高整个交通系统的效率.

Traffic congestion is a widely existed social economy problem in metropolitans,which brings huge cost to many cities and urban areas.The direct reasons for traffic congestion are the rapid increasing number of automobiles,and comparable insufficient of transportation facilities,however different cities and regions may have their particular characteristics.This paper investigated the inherent principles of spatial-temporal evolution of traffic congestion based on Shenzhen floating car data（FCD） and geo-simulation platform.GIS technologies were used to match the congestion state along the road network,so that the evolution pattern of congestions could be analyzed.Moreover,a correlation algorithm was proposed to measure the similarity of congestion patterns between different links quantitatively,which assists to analyze and disclosure the principles of congestion evolution,and thus to provide guidelines for congestion mitigation.The algorithm can be implementated to integrate the surveilance of traffic congestion with urban planning and management,so as to improve the efficiency of entire transportation system.