滑坡涌浪实例与预测

Examples and Forecasting for Landslide Surge

2008年4月初,汤家湾滑坡受水库蓄水和强降雨影响,4月17日地面出现裂缝,4月22日～23日变形区扩展到高程450 m形成"圈椅"状变形体,7月11日～17日出现连续降雨,7月18日14点27分"圈椅"状变形体(体积15.6×104 m3)失稳入库,最大浪高2.5 m。为了防范滑坡更大规模的变形失稳引发的次生灾害,提高涌浪计算的精度,利用天然的"涌浪实验",经过反演并求出死水位(350 m)和正常水位(400 m)时,下滑体和滑坡整体失稳入库的涌浪高度及波及范围,为灾害的防范提供了科学依据。

In early April 2008,Yangjiawan Landslide was impacted by reservoir filling and heavy rain.On April 17 the ground occurred cracks,from April 22 to 23,the deformation area extended to water level 450m and became an armchair shape.From July 11 to 17,there is a continuous rainfall,on July 18 at 14∶27,this armchair-shape body with a volume of 156 thousand cubic meter slid toward the reservoir,cause a surge up to 2.5m.In order to avoid secondary hazards caused by more scale landslide and improve the calculation accuracy,this paper calculates the height and range of wave caused by failure of the whole landslide in the case of dead water level（350 m）or normal pool level（400 m）by applying this natural test of surge,which provides a scientific basis for disaster prevention.