我国货币政策决策环境分析——基于三元悖论视角

Analysis of China's monetary policy decision-making environment——Based on "The Impossible Trinity"

在金融危机余波未平的敏感时期,中国经济在企稳回升中出现物价上涨过快、外汇储备量过大、资产价格泡沫膨胀等一系列问题。在这种形势下,货币政策的调控作用显得尤为重要。克鲁格曼提出的"三元悖论"理论科学、客观地分析了货币政策环境,解释了货币自由流动、货币政策有效和汇率稳定这三项政策目标无法兼顾的根本原因,从这一模型出发,中国货币当局必须大力推进利率市场化改革、增强汇率弹性、逐步开放资本项目。

In the process of unsettlement of financial crisis, China＇s economic is going up with high inflation rate, huge foreign exchange reserve and swelling property price. Accordingly, monetary policy becomes important to solve these problems. ＂The Impossible Trinity＂ by Paul R. Krugman makes a scientific analyses of the monetary policy environment, and explains that the three policies （free flowing capital, effective monetary policy and stable exchange rate） can＇t be achieved at the same time. In view of this theory, China＇s monetary authority shall carry forward the interest rate marketing reform, strengthen the elasticity of exchange rate, and open the capital account step by step.