地源热泵供暖/制冷住宅建筑的电负荷预测法的建模及应用

Ground-Source Heat Pump Heating/Cooling Load of Residential Buildings Electrical Modeling and Application of Prediction Method

地源热泵(GSHP)作为一种新型高效的空调技术,正得到越来越广泛的应用。对于GSHP供热/制冷的住宅建筑,使用传统的电负荷预测方法已经难以适用,为此提出一种新的电负荷预测方法,将住宅建筑的用电负荷分解为家庭用电负荷、传统公共用电负荷和GSHP空调系统用电负荷三部分。对前两种用电负荷采用单位指标法进行负荷计算,并在计算家庭用电负荷时采用需要系数法计算单位用电指标;而对GSHP空调系统用电负荷,则提出基于逐时运行模拟的负荷预测法进行负荷计算,并以上海金茂崇明低碳示范社区二期公寓建筑的电负荷预测作为应用例子,分析了GSHP空调系统的节能效果。

Ground Source Heat Pump （GSHP） as a new and efficient air-conditioning technology, is being increasingly widely used. For GSHP heating / cooling of residential buildings, using traditional methods of electric load forecasting has been difficult to apply, this presents a new electricity load forecasting, electricity load of residential buildings divided into household electricity load, the traditional public use GSHP air conditioning system electrical load and power load of three parts. Electricity load for the first two units of indicators used for load calculation method and calculation of household electricity load factor calculated using units of electricity needs indicators; while the GSHP air-conditioning system electricity load is proposed to run simulations based on hourly load forecasting method for load calculation, and Shanghai Jinmao Chong Ming building low-carbon demonstration apartment community two electrical load forecasting as an application example, analysis of GSHP energy saving air-conditioning system.