基于突变理论的煤与瓦斯突出危险性预测的研究

Research on risk prediction of coal and gas outburst based on catastrophe theory

将突变理论引入到煤与瓦斯突出危险性预测的研究中,进行了将突变理论和模糊数学结合的突变级数法进行突出预测的研究,从而构建了煤与瓦斯突出危险性预测的评价模型。基于突变理论的煤与瓦斯突出危险性的预测研究,综合考虑了不同指标对突出危险性的影响程度,通过实例分析计算表明,该方法预测结果能较好地与实际相吻合。

The catastrophe theory was introduced to the risk prediction of coal and gas outburst.The catastrophe theory and fuzzy mathematics were combined together to predict coal and gas outburst,on which an evaluation model of coal and gas outburst risk prediction was established.The influencing degrees of different indicators on the risk were considered.The study showed that the results obtained from this risk prediction model were in accordance with the real situations.