摘要
通过主成分分析,将影响天津市水资源承载力变化的7个驱动因子归纳为经济动态压力、社会压力和环境压力三类,得到影响水资源承载力的三个主要因子,分别为人口、工业用水量及农业用水量。进而通过回归分析建立多元线性回归模型,预测出2020年及2030年的用水总量,并结合天津市水资源现状进行分析后,提出了相关的政策性建议和措施。
Based on the principal component analysis, seven driving factors which influence the carrying capacity of water resources in Tianjin are classified into three kinds as economic dynamic pressure, social pressure and environmental pressure, and three main factors as population, industrial water use and agricultural water use are gained. Combined with regression analysis, the multiple linear regressions model is established to predict the total water uses in the year of 2020 and 2030, and the suggestions and measures are also proposed for meeting the requirements on water resources after analyzing the status of water resources in Tianjin.
出处
《水力发电》
北大核心
2011年第10期22-24,27,共4页
Water Power
基金
国家自然科学基金项目(40971300)
中央高校基本业务费项目(09MG16)
教育部留学人员科研启动基金(教外留10010)
关键词
水资源承载力
驱动因子
主成分分析
多元线性回归
carrying capacity of water resources
driving factors
principal component analysis
multiple linear regressions
