摘要
针对船舶选定型决策工作中常见的决策信息不完全、指标间相关性与权重确定、决策数据处理合成等问题,提出一种基于层次分析与证据理论的决策方法.该方法按照层次分析法原理确定决策模型结构并计算指标权重,利用分级排序表处理指标相关性,同时按照证据理论原理将决策评价等级转化为同一信度框架内的信度分配,用D-S公式进行合成,最终获得对对象船舶的效用排序.将该方法结论与基于灰色关联理论的船舶选定型决策方法结论进行比较分析,说明其有效性.
To solve the problems of incomplete information, indicators relativity and weights computing, data processing in the ship type decision making, a new method based on analytic hierarchy process （AHP） is proposed. The method first constrtlcts the hierarchical model for the ship type decision making so as to compute indicator＇s weights. Then we process the indicators relativity through rating scale analysis and define the basic probability assignment function （BPA） according to the assessment information. The BPA values are integrated by D-S formula so as to determine the alternative ranking of target ships. Moreover, we also compare the ship type decision-making results of the Grey Incidence Analysis （GIA） and DST-AHP to indicate its validity and wide applicability of this method.
出处
《船舶工程》
CSCD
北大核心
2011年第5期86-90,共5页
Ship Engineering
关键词
船舶选型
群决策
证据理论
层次分析法
ship type
group decision making
dempster-shafer theory （DST）
analytic hierarchy process （AHP）
