我国各省电力工业碳排放现状与趋势分析

Status Quo and Trends of Carbon Emissions of China's Provincial Power Industries

燃煤是CO2排放的主要来源,未来煤电布局将直接影响各地区的CO2减排空间。利用联合国政府间气候变化专门委员会(IPCC)温室气体清单指南中提供的方法,测算分析了2006—2008年各省份火电行业的碳排放量和碳排放强度,同时基于我国未来煤电装机规模以及空间布局方案,预测了2015年和2020年各地区火电行业碳排放量,并依据测算结果为各地区碳排放指标分配提出政策建议。

Coal burning is the major source of carbon dioxide emissions and the future thermal power distribution will directly affect the carbon dioxide emissions of every region. The methodology in GHG inventory guidelines provided by the intergovernmental panel on climate change （IPCC）, is used to estimate the carbon emissions and carbon emission intensity of every provincial power industry during the period from 2006 to 2008. Basing on China＇ s future installed capacity and the spatial layout of coal power, this paper predicts the carbon emissions of every provincial power industry in China during the period from 2015 and 2020, and puts forward some policy recommendations about the allocation of carbon emission quota.