中国—东盟热带水果贸易及对中国热带水果产业影响研究

The Situation,Latent Influence of China's Tropical Fruit Trade with ASEAN Countries and the Developing Strategy of China's Tropical Fruit Industry

本文对中国—东盟自由贸易区建立以来中国与东盟国家热带水果的贸易现状及经济效应进行了分析。研究发现,"早期收获计划"及零关税政策的实施显著促进了中国热带水果及其加工品进口量的增长,丰富了中国热带水果消费市场,对东盟国家的贸易创造和贸易转移效应影响突出,也提高了中国热带水果贸易的经济效率,但同时却成为中国与东盟贸易逆差的根源。随着低价格东盟热带水果进口量的进一步增长,中国热带水果生产及加工产业将面临更严峻的挑战。

This paper analyzes the present situation and economic effects of China's tropical fruit trade with ASEAN since the establishment of Free Trade Area between China and ASEAN countries.It indicates that the'early harvest agreement'and the zero tariff policy significantly contributed to the rapid growth of China's imports of tropical fruits and processed products,enriched Chinese tropical fruit market,promoted the effects of trade creation and trade diversion for ASEAN countries,and improved the economic efficiency of Chinese tropical fruits trade.However,this paper finds that the huge imports of tropical fruits from ASEAN became the original cause of China's trade deficit with ASEAN.With the further growth in importing the tropical fruit with lower prices from ASEAN,China's tropical fruit industries will face gigantic potential impacts and China's tropical fruit processing industry will also face more severe challenges.In order to promote the healthy development of China's tropical fruit industry,and to improve China's tropical fruit industry's competitiveness,China should develop the tropical fruit processing products,implement the competitive strategy in developing tropical fruit's processing industry,and increase the investment in R&D to achieve the model of advanced technology leading Chinese tropical fruit industry's development.Furthermore,the macro-control polices should be strengthened,the financial support policy system should also be established.