中国房地产市场的非理性繁荣:基于房地产投资特性的非平稳面板计量检验

Irrational Exuberance of China's Real Estate Market:Econometric Test by Means of the Non-stationary Panel Based on the Investment Properties of Real Estate

房地产为居民生活和各项经济活动的开展提供基本的场所,同时也是居民最重要的投资品种之一。目前我国房地产市场获得迅猛发展,房地产价格更是持续快速的上涨,呈现一片繁荣的景象。然而我国现在的房地产市场的繁荣是否是理性的,存在很大争议。文章利用非平稳面板计量方法,基于房地产的投资特性,对我国现阶段房地产价格上涨的"非理性繁荣"进行了实证检验和判断,结果表明我国房价已脱离租金所确定的基本面,房地产价格上涨呈现出非理性的繁荣。

The real estate provides the basic place for the residents＇ life and their economic activities.Meanwhile,it is also one of the most important investment varieties.At present in our country the real estate market obtains rapid development and the real estate price continues to rise,which presents a prosperous scene.However,there are controversies over whether it is rational for the real estate market to develop so rapidly.This paper uses the non-stationary panel way that is based on the investment characteristic of real estate,to test empirically and judge the irrational exuberance of real estate rise in price in our country.The results show that the house price has been separated from the fundamental plane in our country and the real estate rise in price presents irrational exuberance.