陕西省能源消费碳排放分析及预测

Carbon Emissions from Energy Consumption and Projections in Shaanxi Province

陕西省是西部大开发战略实施的重点省份,近年来国民经济呈现快速增长势头,"十一五"以及"十二五"节能减排任务艰巨.本文采用IPCC2006提出的能源碳排放计算方法,根据近年来陕西省能源消耗、GDP增长以及产业变化的相关数据,分析陕西省碳排放的现状,探讨了能源结构和产业结构变动对碳排放量的影响,通过卡亚公式对2009～2020年能源碳排放量趋势进行了预测.研究表明,陕西省GDP的快速增长导致能源碳排放总量的上升,以煤类能源为主导的能源结构是碳排放强度较高的主要因素,预测显示碳排放总量将在人均GDP达到3.5万元附近出现拐点.针对陕西省能源碳排放的趋势,提出了持续优化能源结构,降低煤类能源比重,促进产业结构升级,加快第三产业发展,发展新能源等多种应对策略.

In recent years,Shaanxi Province is one of the focus provinces in the western development strategy.national economy gets a rapid growth.In order to achieve the ＂Eleventh Five-Year Plan＂ and ＂Twelfth Five-Year Plan＂emission reduction task,Shaanxi Province faces enormous challenges.According to the related data of the Shaanxi Province energy consumed and increase of GDP and the changes of the industry structure,this article adopted the carbon emission calculating method for all kinds of energy proposed by IPCC 2006,to analyze the trend of the carbon emission in Shaanxi Province and investigate the effect of the change of energy structure and the industry structure to the carbon emission.And predict the trend of carbon emissions of energy from 2009 to 2020 by Kaya Formula.The study shows the rapid growth of GDP led to the rise in carbon emissions of energy,coal dominated energy structure is the major factor keeps the carbon emission intensity in the high level.Projections of carbon emissions show that the inflection point will occur when per capita GDP to reach 35 000yuan.So the article proposes as follows：optimizing the energy structure further,reducing the proportion of the coal type energy,upgrading the industry structure,especially accelerating the development of the tertiary industry,diversifying the energy types by developing new energy using the resource around Shaanxi Province,and so on.