考虑进度不确定的土石坝填筑施工成本风险分析

Cost-risk analysis of earth dam construction with considerations of schedule uncertainty

在气象等不确定因素的影响下,土石坝填筑施工进度具有较大的风险,并伴随着施工成本风险的发生。在定义施工成本风险的基础上,构建了进度不确定条件下施工成本风险分析模型;探讨了施工成本不确定性及其分布,以及施工赶工成本分析计算方法;针对施工成本风险分析模型的特点,采用离散化方法,得到了施工成本风险计算公式。算例结果表明,在进度不确定条件下,施工成本存在较大的风险性,这在工程投标报价、施工管理决策中是不能忽略的。

Earth dam construction,if influenced by uncertain factors such as meteorological condition,is often subjected to a great risk in construction progress and a risk in construction cost.In such cases,an appropriate cost-risk analysis model is needed to take various uncertain factors into account.In this study,construction cost risk was defined and a cost-risk analysis model with considerations of schedule uncertainty was developed.With a discussion on the uncertainty and distribution of construction cost,a calculation method of crash cost was also presented.A cost-risk formula was derived by the same discretization method as that in the cost-risk model.Case studies show that the uncertain construction delay that causes great risk to construction cost,should not be neglected in bidding or construction management decision-making.