基于CA-Markov模型的永春县景观格局动态模拟

Dynamic simulation of landscape pattern in Yongchun based on CA-Markov model

根据景观类型划分出3期永春县景观格局图;并利用IDRISI软件构建CA-Markov模型,对永春县2010年景观格局进行模拟.模拟结果与实际景观格局的Kappa指数为0.8415,具有较高的可信度.再利用该模型对永春县2015年景观格局进行模拟,结果表明:2010-2015年永春县耕地、林地面积趋于减小,建设用地面积增大,其余景观类型略有变化;与2000-2010年相比,永春县耕地和林地面积下降速度没有明显减缓.因此,迫切需要发挥土地利用总体规划的控制作用,加强对耕地和林地的保护.

The three periods of landscape pattern map were got by classifying the land using the map of 2000,2005 and 2010 in Yongchun;the dynamic landscape pattern of Yongchun based on CA-Markov model was simulated by applying IDRISI software.The simulation result had high reliability,with the Kappa coefficient of 0.8415 comparing with actual situation.The simulation of the landscape pattern in Yongchun showed that from 2010 to 2015,the area of cropland and forest would decrease constantly,while construction land would increase,with a slight change in the remaining landscape types;comparing to the landscape pattern in 2000-2010,no evidences showed that the cropland and woodland decreasing rate would be slow.It suggested that the control functions of land use planning would be enhanced to protect cropland and woodland.