中国通货膨胀预期:理性还是适应性

Inflation Expectation in China:Rational or Adaptive?

在介绍我国通胀预期测量与估计方法的基础上,分析差额法、正态分布概率法、均匀分布概率法和Logistic分布概率法下通胀预期的形成机制。研究表明,通胀预期的理性或适应性的判断取决于我国居民对未来物价预期所服从的分布,均匀分布下的通胀预期具有较强的特殊性,并且这种分布直接影响着政策制定部门抑制通胀的侧重方向。

Based on estimation and measurement of Inflation Expectations,This paper analyzes respectively the formative mechanism of Inflation Expectations using method of balance、normal distribution probability、uniform distribution probability and Logistic distribution probability.We find that the Judge on rationality or adaptation depends on the distribution of expectation to price which the residents hold,especially to uniform distribution.Moreover,that distribution will affect directly the focus on decreasing Inflation which the authorities make.