经济高速发展中的城镇化影响因素

The Study on Urbanization with Fast Growing Economy in China

本文基于中国经济高速发展期的特殊环境,通过考察经济规模、产业结构和城乡收入差距等因素,建立城镇化发展影响因素的计量模型。实证研究表明:面板协整检验表明城镇化率、城乡收入差距、产业结构和人均GDP之间存在显著的长期均衡关系,模型估计结果表明经济增长的规模效应显著为正,而结构效应中农业化率与城镇化之间呈显著的负相关关系,城乡收入差距的结构效应则呈现出显著的倒"U"关系。

Since the reform and open in 1978,Chinese economic has been bursting with the fast growth rate,and her urbanization is also bursting.Based on the very condition,this paper structures the econometrical model with the variables of economic scale,industry structure and income gap between urban and rural to make empirical study.The conclusions reveals： 1） the panel co-integration shows that there is the long term stability relation among urbanization,the income gap between urban and rural,industrial structure and GDP per capita;2） the econometrical result reveals that the scale effects of economic growth is positive significantly,but the structure effects is negative with the urbanization,and there is the inverted ＂U＂ relation between income gap between urban and rural and urbanization.