三水源模型在滦河流域的应用分析

Application of Three-source Model at Luanhe River Basin

流域洪水预报模型大致可分蓄满产流和超渗产流2种方式，针对滦河流域的地形、地貌及雨洪特性，采用三水源模型，属于蓄满产流方式。介绍三水源模型实时洪水预报系统在滦河流域的应用。利用模型，根据计算误差来实时修正估计结果、模型参数等，使得实时洪水预报系统具有较好的实时修正和动态跟踪能力。实际应用过程中，由于流域实际产流过程是复杂、多样的，蓄满与超渗2种产流方式在同一区域可能同时存在，预报结果与实测数据存在一定误差，但通过实例分析，多数误差在规定的范围内，正常情况下的预报精度较高，基本上满足了水库防汛要求。

Flood forecasting model for river basin consists of runoff yield under saturated storage and runoffyield under excess infiltration. According to topographical features and storm flood characteristics of Luanhe river basin, three-source model is used, which is the type of runoff yield under saturated storage. The paper describes the application of real-time flood forecasting system by use of three-source model at the basin. The model is used for realtime correction of estimated results and model parameters in accordance with calculation error, so that the system can possess good performances of real-time correction and dynamic tracking capacity. Because runoff yield in river basin is complicated and multiple, two methods of runoff yield may exist in one region at the same time, there are certain errors between forecasting result and the measurement data. Through a case analysis, most errors generally fall within the error band. Under normal conditions, the system features with good forecasting accuracy and basically satisfies requirements for reservoir flood control.