气候变化对天山西部哈什河径流变化过程的影响分析

Impacts of Climate Change on Runoff Process of Khash River in Western Tianshan Mountains,Xinjiang,China

由于气候变化导致的我国西北地区径流变化已引起了广泛关注.哈什河位于新疆天山西部,冰雪融水是哈什河主要补给源.根据哈什河1955年以来的实测水文、气象资料分析表明,50多年来,哈什河降水、气温呈波动性上升趋势,特别是20世纪80年代后期以来,降水、气温进入明显上升阶段.对径流丰枯周期分析表明,哈什河径流变化过程与降水、气温变化过程并不完全一致,径流变化1960年以前为丰水期,其后进入平水期,直至1973年开始转入枯水期,这一枯水阶段持续至1997年转入丰水期.通过降水、气温、径流冷、暖季年代际过程对照分析发现,径流年际变化对冷季降水及暖季气温变化最为敏感.

As a result of climate change,the changes in river runoff in the Northwest China have attracted widely attention.Khash River is located in the western Tianshan Mountains in Xinjiang.The glacier and snow melt water is the main supply source of Khash River.The data of hydrology and meteorology since 1955 shows that the air temperature and precipitation are fluctuating upward trend,especially since the late of 1980s,the air temperature and precipitation are increasing obviously.Based on the analysis of the cycle of wetness-dryness in runoff,it can be found that the changes of runoff process in Khash River are not entirely consistent with the changes in air temperature and precipitation.The changes in runoff is wet season before 1960,then into the median water period until 1973,and is dry season during the period of 1973 to 1997,but into wet season begin 1997.The results of research shows inter-annual variation of runoff is the most sensitive to the precipitation of cold season and changes in temperature of warm season.