和田河流域平原耗水驱动力与适宜绿洲规模分析

Analysis of Driving Force of Water Consumption in Plain and Suitable Scale of Oasis in Hotan River Basin

基于和田河流域1964—2007年的水文、气象及社会经济资料,分析了和田河流域水资源变化趋势,探讨了流域耗水量变化的驱动因素,并在此基础上运用水量平衡法和水热平衡法估算了流域适宜绿洲规模和适宜耕地面积.结果表明,1964—2007年和田河流域出山口径流呈现增幅为0.495×108m3.(10a)-1增加趋势,流域耗水量呈现增幅为0.638×108 m3.(10a)-1增加趋势,而下泄进入塔里木河干流的水量则呈现减幅为0.143×108 m3.(10a)-1的减少趋势.1988年后人为活动对水资源影响明显加强,1989—2007年流域耗水量表现为4.805×108 m3.(10a)-1的显著增加趋势.分析表明:和田河适宜绿洲规模约为4 400 km2,适宜绿洲耕地面积约为1 300 km2.

Based on the data of hydrology,meteorology and social economy in Hotan River basin from 1964_2007,the linear regression analysis method is applied to analyze the change of runoff and water consumption.Meanwhile,the driving factor of water consumption is analyzed by using correlation and principal component analysis methods.Finally,suitable scale and cultivated land area of the oasis are estimated by means of hydro-thermal balance and water-balance principles.The results show that the runoff increases at the rate of 0.495×108 m35（10a）＋-1,the water consumption increases at the rate of 0.638×108 m35（10a）＋-1,and the amount of water flowing into the Tarim River decreases at the speed of 0.143×108 m35（10a）＋-1.Because of the enhancing influence of human activities on water resources after 1988,the water consumption appears a significant increase with the rate of 4.805×108 m35（10a）＋-1 from 1989_2007.According to the calculation results of the two models,the suitable scale of oasis is about 4 400 km2,and the farmland area maintained within 1 300 km2 is relatively appropriate in the Hotan River basin.