玛纳斯河流域绿洲区域经济差异分解研究

Decomposition of Regional Economic Disparity in Manasi River Basin

以县域为研究单元,运用崔王指数(TW)、经济增长指数和泰尔指数分解等方法,对1978—2007年新疆典型绿洲县域经济的增长及其差异进行了分析.结果表明:以崔王极化指数测度的绿洲县域经济极化态势呈波动性扩大的趋势,并大致可以分为2个不同的发展阶段;自1978年以来玛纳斯河流域各县域经济都得到了较快发展,绿洲平均经济增长率为18.6%.从整个绿洲来看,经济平均增长指数经历了"增加-降低-增加"的过程;从绿洲的不同灌区来看,各个分区的平均增长指数都出现了大幅度的波动,其极差为41.17%;泰尔指数的分解特征表明,1978—2007年间,灌区内差异虽然呈波动式下降的趋势,但它仍然主导着区域内经济的差异;但从不同灌区来看,石河子区和安集海区的经济差异占据了灌区内差异的90%以上,是灌区内差异的主体,是区域整体差异的根源.地理环境、人口文化素质、政策性因素等是造成玛纳斯河流域绿洲县域经济差异的最主要的原因.

Selecting some county-level administrative districts as the study units,in this paper,the economic development and its disparities among the districts in Manasi River basin from 1978-2007 are analyzed using TW index,economic growth index and Theil index.The result shows that the spatial polarization evaluated by TW Index is continuously increasing,which can be subdivided into two stages（1978-1995 and 1995-2007）.The district economy has been increasing rapidly since 1978 in Manasi River basin,with an average growth rate of 18.6%.The average economy growth rate of the whole oasis has experienced a process of ＂increasing decreasing increasing＂;while the average growth rate of each subarea has experienced an undulate process.The analysis with Theil decomposition method shows that the disparities inside groups are decreasing,but it still has a leading role for the regional disparities between 1978 and 2007.Regional disparity between Shihezi and Anjihai districts holds 90% of the whole basin＇s economic disparity.It is the principal part of the regional economic disparity in the basin.The main reasons for the regional economic disparity are geographical environment,population qualities and policy factors in the Manasi River basin.