电力市场运营效率动态评价的协同演化模型

Synergistic Evolutionary Model for Dynamic Evaluation of Electricity Market Efficiency

指出电力市场运营不仅涉及到发输配售各子系统之间复杂和协同的技术经济联系,还会受到燃料成本、政府规制政策等市场环境的影响。因此,对电力市场运营效率进行评价应考虑到系统内部各子系统之间的非线性作用关系及环境影响因素。选取HHI、申报供需比、结算电价、售电中标率、社会福利等变量刻画市场运营状况;运用协同学原理,建立了电力市场运营效率动态评价的协同演化模型。结合我国南方电网的运营数据,得出反映市场结构的HHI和交易结果的结算电价为系统演化的序参量,对市场演化起关键作用。为进行市场效率动态评价打下基础。

Electricity market operation not only involves complex and cooperative technical and economic links among the subsystems, but is also affected by the market environment, such as fuel costs, government regulation policies. Therefore, to evaluate the efficiency of electricity market operation, the nonlinear interactions within the subsystems, along with environmental factors should be taken into account. Six variables （HHI index, the declaration of supply and demand ratio, settlement price, the bid rate of generators and social welfare） were selected as the representatives of the relative subsystems to describe the operational status of electricity market. A synergetic evolutionary model for the dynamic evaluation of electricity market operation efficiency was established based on synergetic theory. A case was employed using the data from China Southern Power Grid, which indicated that HHI index and settlement price were the order parameters of market operation which had a critical impact on the operation efficiency of the electricity market.