武器装备体系演化评估的建模方法研究

Modeling Approach of System of Armament Systems Evolution Assessment

武器装备体系演化是武器装备体系建设过程的表现,对演化的规律进行评估与分析有助于支撑武器装备体系建设规划的制定。首先分析了武器装备体系演化的内涵,提出了按时间进行离散化的评估与分析思路。然后,在能力需求演化、作战能力演化建模的基础上,建立了作战效能演化的评估模型。其次,分析了体系费用的构成,建立了费用演化的评估模型。最后,从装备系统更替、作战能力与能力需求的匹配、体系费用与体系投入的匹配等角度研究了综合分析方法。所附算例说明了文中方法的可行性。

The evolution of system of armament systems （SoAS） is a primary exhibition of SoAS development. Studying the approaches of assessing and analyzing AS evolution is of great benefit for SoAS development schedule. Firstly, the definition of SoAS evolution was analyzed, and a modeling idea of discretion by time was proposed. Secondly, the models of capability requirement evolution and SoAS capability evolution were given. Then, operational effectiveness evolution of SoAS was modeled. Thirdly, SoAS cost was divided into two parts： SoAS overarching design and test cost, weapon system cost. SoAS cost evolution was modeled based on these theories. Four, the comprehensive assessing and analyzing approaches were studied from three aspects, such as weapon system alternating, the relationships between SoAS capability and corresponding requirements, the relationships between SoAS cost and SoAS cost input. The example followed demonstrates the validity of these models and approaches.