基于AGENT建模的重大疾病传染仿真系统分析

Agent Modeling Based Heavy Infectious Diseases Simulation System Analysis

Agent的建模仿真是重大疾病传染建模仿真的发展方向。在深入分析美国相关计算机仿真系统的基础上,基于agent理论和技术,分析设计了重大疾病传染与控制仿真系统的总体框架、体系结构和逻辑结构。对系统关键模型如大气流动模型、疾病病毒散布模型、个体Agent传染模型、Agent感染效应模型和城市地理信息模型等进行了探讨。然后,构建了一个重大疾病传染仿真原型系统。研究可指导重大疾病传染仿真系统的构建,以及该过程涉及的各种模型和技术细节。

Infectious diseases and bioterroristic attacks are of great concerns for national security. Analyses of emergencies and decision making of public health policies are important to holding back epidemics. With analyzing relevant simulation systems developed in the USA, it could be concluded that the agent-based method stands for the future direction of infectious diseases modelling and simulation. Based on agent theory and technology, an overall framework, architecture and logic structure of simulation system for infectious diseases analysis were designed. Then important models such as an air flowing model, a virus spreading model, an individual model, an infection effect model and a city geographical information model, etc., were discussed. Finally, a prototype of heavy infectious diseases simulation system was constructed. The research achievement could guide the construction of simulation system prototypes for severe infectious diseases, and the consideration of various models and techniques.