日本灾后财政和债务前景展望

Japan's Post-disaster Public Finance and Debt and Future Perspectives

日本是发达经济体中财政赤字和政府债务负担最严重的国家。接二连三的欧洲主权债务危机和美国主权债务问题使市场不得不对日本是否将是下一个债务危机发生国产生隐忧。在2008年全球金融危机爆发前,日本的债务结构和低利率环境还可以使其维系高额的财政赤字和债务负担。然而2008年之后,在全球经济疲软和日本经济萎靡不振的背景下,日本处在了主权债务风险一直上升的阶段。更令日本祸不单行的是"3.11"大地震、海啸和核泄露事件,这一连串灾难更令日本在财政赤字和举债问题上如履薄冰。如果日本政府还不尽快实施有效的债务管理政策和可信的财政整顿计划,短期日本经济会难于运转,中长期日本将爆发主权债务危机。

Japan is one of the industrialized countries with the most serious highest financial deficit and goverument debt burden. The European and US sovereign debt crisis have increased the market concern about the Japanese government debt. The debt structure and the low interest rates had helped Japan to sustain her financial deficit and government debt before the global financial crisis of 2008. The declining global and domestic economy, however, had added to the risk of default. Even worse is Tohoku Earthquake on March 11, 2011 which caused following tsunami and nuclear leakage. The Japanese economy may suffer from financial distress in the short - run and sovereign debt crisis in the long - run, unless effective debt management policies and financial consolidation plans are implemented in time.