乘数法与捕获-再捕获法相结合估计邯郸市男性同性恋人群规模

Combining the multiplier and capture-recapture method to estimate the population size of men who have sex with men(MSM) in Handan city

目的调查估计邯郸市男性同性恋人群规模,分析影响评估结果的因素,为制订有针对性的艾滋病防治策略提供科学依据。方法结合乘数法和捕获-再捕获法对邯郸市男性同性恋活动场所进行调查估计。结果计算得出男性同性恋人群为1 453人,95%可信区间为(1 227,1 681)。结论捕获-再捕获法和乘数法均为较可行的对男同性恋人群进行规模估计的间接方法。用时短、花费低,适合在卫生资源有限的情况下进行艾滋病高危人群的规模估计。

Objective To investigate and estimate the crowd scale of men who have sex with men（MSM） in Handan city and analyze the related factors which may influence the estimate result,so as to provide scientific basis for development HIV/AIDS prevention and control strategy.Method The multiplier and capture-recapture method were applied to estimate the size of MSM in Handan City.Results The number of the MSM in Handan city was 1 453,and 95% confidence interval was from 1 227 to 1 681.Conclusions Multiplier and capture-recapture methods were credible indirect methods to estimate the MSM＇s size.It was less cost both on time and funds,and suitable for the city to estimate the size of HIV/AIDS high risk population with limited health resource.