武汉市经济发展与能源消耗的脱钩分析

Study on Decoupling Between Economic Development and Energy Consumption of Wuhan

从国家和省域层面研究低碳问题,相关分析比较宏观,难以发现具体市域经济实体内部存在的环境问题。针对具体市域,研究其经济发展与能源消耗之间的脱钩状况可以为城市的低碳发展提供参考。应用Tapio脱钩模型分析了武汉市1996-2008年的经济增长与能源消耗的脱钩状况,同时分析了武汉市能源消耗现状及引致因素。结果发现1996-2008年期间脱钩值的剧烈波动主要来自于能源消耗的波动;武汉市能源消耗的引致因素具体分解为人口因素、经济因素和技术因素。提出了武汉市实现经济增长与能源消耗的强脱钩的政策建议:加快调整能源结构和产业结构,提高能源效率,实现清洁生产;合理规划武汉市人口数量,加快改进武汉市交通现状,实现城市生活低碳化;加强武汉市绿化带的建设,增加碳汇。

Study on the problem of low-carbon from the national and provincial level is a micro-scale one,which can not be applied to discover the hidden environmental problems in municipal-level economic entities.Study on the decoupling relationship between economic development and energy consumption at the municipal level is of great significance to develop low-carbon cities.This paper uses Tapio decoupling model to analyze the decoupling relationship between economic growth and energy consumption in Wuhan from 1996 to 2008,and also analyzes the situations and driving factors of energy consumption in Wuhan.The result shows that volatility of the decoupling rates is mainly from fluctuations in energy consumption during 1996-2008;the driving factors of energy consumption includes demographic factors,economic factors and technical factors.This paper finally proposes some suggestions on how to achieve strong decoupling between economic growth and energy consumption,these suggestions include speeding up the adjustment of energy structure and industrial structure,improving energy efficiency,achieving cleaner production;reasonably planning population in Wuhan,quickening the improvement of traffic status quo in Wuhan,realizing low-carbonization in city life,strengthening the construction of green belt and increasing carbon sinks in Wuhan.