摘要
我国是农业巨灾频发的国家。农业巨灾保险作为分散巨灾风险的重要手段,其成功推出的最大瓶颈在于费率的厘定。本文运用粮食单产变异系数、因灾减产强度和地区抗灾能力三个指标对我国各省份的农业生产风险水平进行风险区划,确定风险等级;并采用非参数核密度方法测算出我国各省份的粮食产量异常波动率,结合风险区划确定的各省份风险等级,尝试对农业巨灾保险产品进行费率厘定,以期为我国农业巨灾保险产品的科学、合理定价提供一定的参考。
China is an agricultural catastrophe frequent country.As an important means of dispersing catastrophe,the biggest bottleneck of agricultural catastrophe insurance successfully exploitation is making premium rate.Using three indexes,including grain variation coefficient of the per unit area yield,reduction strength of disaster and areas drought resistance,this paper has measured the risk level of different provinces.Then the authors adopt non-parameter kernel density model to determine the abnormal volatility of grain output in different provinces,try to make premium rate of agriculture catastrophe with risk zoning,and provide some reference for product pricing of agriculture catastrophe insurance in our country.
出处
《现代财经（天津财经大学学报）》
CSSCI
北大核心
2011年第10期32-43,共12页
Modern Finance and Economics：Journal of Tianjin University of Finance and Economics
关键词
农业巨灾保险
风险区划
费率厘定
非参数核密度
agriculture catastrophe insurance
risk zoning
premium rate making
non-parameter kernel density
