丽江云杉大痣小蜂的潜在分布区预测

The Prediction of Potential Geographical Distribution of Seed Chalcids,Megastigmus likiangensis Roques et Sun

根据丽江云杉大痣小蜂在云南的分布点数据和环境数据,通过Maxent模型预测了丽江云杉大痣小蜂在云南的潜在分布区域:高适生区主要包括丽江市的永胜县,玉龙县,华平县,宁蒗县;中适生区包括迪庆州的维西县、大理州北部、楚雄的大姚县、永仁县、元谋县、昆明的东川区;低适生区包括昆明市,怒江州西部,保山市,临沧市北部,普洱市的景东县,曲靖市的大部分地区,红河州的大部分地区;除上述地区外其余地区为丽江云杉大痣小蜂的非适生区。该研究的训练数据和测试数据的AUC值分别为0.995和1.000,表明Maxent模型对该蜂在云南的潜在分布区预测有显著的统计学意义。

To estimate scientifically the risk of this species and take effective measures, it＇s necessary to investigate the infected region and potential distribution of the species in Yunnan. Ecological niche model technique, Maxent, was used to predict potential distribution of the seed chacids, Megastigmus likiangensis Roques et Sun in Yunnan based on associations between known occrrence records and a set of environment variables： The highly suitable areas for Megastigmus likiangensis Roques et Sun in Yunnan province mainly in Lijiang district, included Yongsheng county, Yulong county, Huaping county, Ninglang county. The moderate suitable areas included Weixi county of Diqing district, Northern Dali county, Dayao county of Chuxiong, Yongren county, Yuanmou county, Dongchuan district of Kunming city. The low suitable areas included Kunming city, western Nujiang district, Baoshan city, Northern Lincang city, Jingdong district of Pu＇er city, Most of the areas in Qujing city and Honghe district. In addition to these areas, the rest of the regions were unsuitable areas for Megastigmus likian- gensis Roques et Sun. The AUC（Area Under roc curve） of the training data and the test data are respective 0. 995 and 1. 000, indicating that the Maxent had statistical significance for predicting the potential geographical distribution.