东部地区能源碳排放的省域比较及因素分解

Provincial Comparison and Factorization of Energy Carbon Emissions in the Eastern Region

根据1996年～2008年能源消费数据,对东部地区12个省份的CO2排放量进行估算,并且利用LMDI方法对其进行因素分解。结果表明:东部地区碳排放呈快速增长趋势,且不同省份之间碳排放量差异比较明显;经济增长、人口规模和能源结构是东部地区碳排放的驱动因素,其中经济增长是最关键的因子,而技术进步是东部地区碳排放的抑制因素,但是在不同年份之间存在较大的随机性。基于此,提出了减少东部地区CO2排放的相关政策建议,以适应中国的低碳经济道路。

Based on the energy consumption data from 1996 to 2008, this paper estimates the carbon dioxide emissions of 12 provinces in the east- ern region, and decomposes it using LMDI method. The results show that： firstly, the carbon emissions show a rapid growth trend in the eastern region, and the difference of carbon emissions is obvious among the different provinces; secondly, economic growth, population size and energy structure are the drivers of carbon emissions in the eastern region, and economic growth is the most critical factor; thirdly, technological advance reduces the carbon emissions in the eastern region, but it shows randomness between different year. Finally the paper puts forward corresponding policy suggestions to reduce the carbon emissions in the eastern region so as to conform the low carbon economy.