海南经济增长动力实证研究

An Empirical Study of the Economic Growth Impetus in Hainan

通过分析1988-2009年海南投资率、消费率、净出口率相关数据,把海南投资率、消费率与经济增长率进行对比得出结论:海南经济增长主要靠消费、投资两轮驱动,净出口在海南经济增长中的作用不明显,经济特区"出口导向型"的经济增长模式并未体现;投资、消费没有对海南经济增长形成长期稳定的拉动作用;当消费率高于投资率时,海南经济增长,而当消费率低于投资率时,海南经济增长不明显直至下降;海南经济增长动力呈现出弱工业下的消费主导型增长、间歇性的投资冲击型增长和乏力的外向型增长模式等特征。

Through an analysis of the investment rate, the consumption rate and the 1988-2009 in Hainan, the investment rate, the consumption rate and the economic growth ted in Hainan, and the conclusion is thus reached： Hainan＇ s economic net export data of rates are contras- growth is mainly propelled by con- sumption and investment drive without any obvious role of the net export or any display of the ＂export-oriented＂ model of economic growth for the special economic zone ; investment and consumption have not given a long-term and stable impetus to Hainan＇ s economic growth ; when the consumption rate is higher than the investment rate, Hainan＇ s economy witnesses growth ; whereas when the consumption rate is lower than the in- vestment rate, there is no obvious growth and even a decrease in Hainan~ economy; the economic growth im- petus in Hainan is characterized by a consumption-dominated growth under a weak industry, an intermittent growth of investment-based impact, and by a weak export-oriented model of growth model, etc.