麦克林模型视角下中国货币政策探究

Chinese Monetary Policy Inquiry in Perspective of McCallum-type Rule

温家宝总理在2011年政府工作报告中提出,要把稳定物价总水平作为宏观调控的首要任务,而保持物价稳定需要以合理的货币供给为基础。本文在麦克林模型视角下,探索货币供给量对物价的动态影响方式、途径,提出货币可以作为变量来对物价水平进行预测,在此基础上运用自回归模型证明货币政策对整个社会的名义产出产生巨大冲击。

Premier Wen Jiabao propose that stabilizing price level is the most important task of mcroeconomic regulatory in the 2011 government work report. As we know, the keeping prices stable is the basis of reasonable monetary supply. Under the McCallum model perspective, the paper explore the money supply dynamic effects on prices, and consider that money can be used as variables to predict the price level. Moreover, results using a structural vector autoregression suggest that our measure of excess money supply could be used to identify monetary policy shocks in the Chinese economy.