低碳产业技术路线图分析方法研究

Study on Analysis Approaches for Technology Roadmapping of Low-Carbon Industry

将技术路线图方法引入到低碳产业技术发展战略研究之中,对制定低碳产业技术路线图的方法和工具进行了讨论和分析。通过分析低碳产业技术路线图的对象和驱动力,明确了路线图的共同愿景和使命。研究表明,在进行低碳技术预见时,采取文献计量分析和德尔菲法相结合的方法是一种比较合适的技术预见方法,并建立了适合低碳产业需要的问卷指标体系。在对调查数据分析的基础上,提出了绘制低碳产业技术路线图的方法和范式。在完成路线图的制定工作后,需要建立起定期的更新机制,并阐述了具体的适用于建立低碳产业技术路线图更新机制的工作流程。

Technology Roadmapping（TRM） is introduced into the study for low-carbon technology development strategy.The methods,tools and approaches of developing technology roadmaps in low-carbon industry are discussed and analyzed.According to analyzing the objectives and drivers of technology roadmaps in low-carbon industry,the common vision and missions are proposed.Research findings indicate the method which is combined Bibliometric Analysis with Delphi Survey is suitable for low-carbon technology foresight,and the index system for Delphi Survey is established for low-carbon industry studying.Based on the analysis of survey data,the method and example of developing technology roadmaps in low-carbon industry are proposed.Research findings also indicate it is necessary to establish a regular update mechanism after the completion of developing roadmaps,and the specific update mechanism which is used for TRM in low-carbon industry is elaborated.