美元价值波动对近年黄金价格影响研究

The Devaluation the Dollar Influence to Gold Prices

黄金是同时具有货币与商品双重功能的特殊金属,根源在于其稀缺性。随着世界经济一体化的深入,各国货币政策、财政政策及相关政策变动幅度和频率都较大,使得经济体内的商品价格、汇率、利率及通货膨胀率等均出现了不同程度的波动,黄金价格也随之经历了变动,然而稀缺性的根本属性使得黄金保值增值功能得到越来越大的体现,黄金价格的变化是多重因素共同作用下的结果,因此对黄金价格变化的影响因素和决定性因素成为重要的课题和研究方向。本文首先回顾了黄金市场历史变迁、构成要素、主要交易市场等基本内容,在此基础上全面分析了黄金价格的影响因素,并在此基础上着重分析了黄金价格受美元相关因素影响机理,并利用EVIEWS6.0软件进行了实证分析,具体包括OLS回归分析、ADF平稳性检验、协整关系、格兰杰因果检验、VAR模型、方差分解及脉冲响应函数等,最后根据分析和实证检验结果提出相应的对策建议。

Gold as a special kind of precious metals, have the double function of currencies and commodities. In recent years, gold prices experienced sharp fluctuations, scarcity make its value function get huge reflected, so the study of the decisive factor of gold price change becomes very important. The price of gold change is under the combined action of multiple factors result, this paper first reviews the gold market history change, components, main trading market and other basic content, based on comprehensive analysis on the factors affecting the price of gold, and on this basis the gold prices are emphatically analyzed Smechanism, and the relative factors which affect the EVIEWS6.0 software by empirical analysis, specific include OLS regression analysis, ADF station test, integration relation, granger causality test, VAR model, variance decomposition and impulse response function etc, according to the analysis and the empirical results puts forward corresponding countermeasures.