基于IAHP的城域突发事故灾害社会风险定量评估

Social Risks Quantitative Evaluation of Urban Emergency Disasters Based on IAHP

通过对城域突发事故灾害社会损失的分析,建立了社会损失评估指标体系。突破传统仅针对人员死亡概率定量计算的区域风险评价方法,从可能性和社会损失两个方面构建了能够综合反映人员伤亡、财产损失、环境破坏的社会风险定量评估模型,并对事故灾害社会风险实施等级划分。通过对AHP方法优缺点的分析,建议综合运用IAHP来确立社会损失指标的权重,并展开假设性例证分析,从而为突发事故灾害的管理提供指导。

Through the analysis of social losses of urban emergency disasters,the evaluation index system is established.Based on the possibility and social losses,the quantitative evaluation model and the method of social risk ranks are established that can express the casualties,losses and environmental damages.This paper also introduce the advantages and disadvantages of AHP,suggests deciding the weight with IAHP and explains it with a hypothetical example,which can direct the management of the emergency disasters.