基于耕地压力指数和GM(1,1)模型的区域粮食安全状况研究——以甘肃省天水市为例

A Case Study of Tianshui City in Gansu:Plantation Preservation Quantity Research Based on Food Security and GM(1,1) Model

在分析天水市1996-2005年耕地、人口、粮食动态变化的基础上,计算最小人均耕地面积和耕地压力指数,运用GM(1,1)模型对未来15 a天水市耕地压力指数进行了预测。研究结果显示:1996-2005年,虽然天水人均耕地面积持续减少,但由于耕地生产率不断提高,粮食产量和人均占有量在持续增加,最小人均耕地面积和耕地压力指数呈现降低的趋势,但是耕地压力指数始终在1之上。未来15 a耕地压力指数将进一步降低,耕地生产力的供给水平高于食物消费水平,区域粮食安全隐患较小。

Taking Tianshui city in Gansu province for example,the aera of cultivated land and the plantation preservation quantity were determined based on Land-use changing data,population and food statistics between 1996 and 2005.The plantation preservation quantity of Tianshui the next 15 years was calculated in mathematical method of GM（1,1）model.The results show that： the minimum area of cultivated land per capita and the plantation preservation quantity decreased between 1996 and 2005.Moreover,the plantation preservation quantity was alawys 1.The reason was that although per capita cultivated land continued to decline in Tianshui,the food production and per capita continued to increase because of increasing food productivity.The plantation preservation quantity will futher reduce and the supply of land productivity was higher than the level of food consumption and regional food security risks was smalle in the next 15 years