海拉尔河流域水资源承载力模糊综合评价

Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation of Carrying Capacity of Water Resources of Hailaer River Basin

为了准确评价海拉尔河流域水资源承载力,对未来作出预测,以2006年为现状年,选取人均水资源可利用量、水资源利用率、城镇人口比例、供水模数、需水模数、生活用水定额、河道外生态用水率7个评价指标,并采用模糊综合评价法对海拉尔河流域水资源承载力进行了评价和预测。结果表明:海拉尔河流域2006年水资源开发利用程度较低,开发潜力较大;随着区域社会经济的发展,到2030年水资源供给将很难满足需求,水资源将成为制约海拉尔河流域经济发展的重要因素。

In order to exactly evaluate the present carrying capacity of water resources and prospect of Hailaer River Basin,this paper takes 2006 as the present situation,selects seven evaluation index including per capita available water resources,water utilization rate,proportion of urban population,water supply module,water requirement module,domestic water quota and ecological water demand ratios of river,and uses fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method to evaluate and forecast the water resources carrying capacity of Hailaer River Basin.The results show that a） water resources development and utilization level in Hailaer River Basin is low,and the potential is large;b） with the development of regional social economy,water resources will be difficult to support water demand in 2030,and water resources will become an important factor which restricts economic growth in Hailaer River Basin