需求拉动型供应链突发风险传递模型

Model of Emergencies Risk Transmission in Demand-pull Supply Chain

研究突发事件风险在需求拉动型供应链中传递的效应和规律。以博弈论思想为指导,分析了突发事件风险在需求拉动型供应链中传递的过程,建立了相应的风险传递模型,计算了供应链双方利润的需求风险弹性系数。研究表明:供应链双方利润与市场容量呈正相关,与价格敏感系数呈负相关;突发事件引起的市场容量变化对供应链双方利润的影响要远大于价格弹性系数变化对供应链双方利润的影响;无论供应链成本如何变化,供应链各方利润对需求总量和需求倾向的各风险弹性系数恒大于1,说明下游需求的小幅变动可能引起上游利润的大幅变动,证明了牛鞭效应的存在。

To study the mechanism of emergencies risk transmission in demand-pull supply chain,the risk transmission process is analyzed,and some models are presented using game theory.Studies show that the market capacity is positively correlated with the profit of the supplier and retailer,but the price sensitivity is to the contrary.And the influence of market capacity is more sensitive than price sensitivity＇ to the profit.It proves the existence of the bullwhip effect.No matter how the cost changes,both the risk elasticity coefficients are more than 1.