基于时间序列分析的地下水动态研究

Study on Dynamic Characteristics of Groundwater based on the Time Series Analysis Method

根据济南市区多年地下水监测资料,采用多元回归模型研究济南岩溶水地下水位动态特征,地下水位年内动态呈明显季节性变化;随时间的推移,年际动态呈现降雨量对地下水位的影响程度逐渐减小、开采量的影响程度逐渐增加的特点。采用时间序列分析法分离了地下水位序列的趋势项、周期项和随机项,建立地下水位预测模型,计算结果与实测值相吻合。为济南岩溶水的合理利用、泉水保护、地下水的监测管理提供了科学依据。

According to many years＇ groundwater monitoring data of Jinan City, using the multiple regression model to analyse the dynamic characteristics of karst groundwater in Jinan. The annual dynamic characteristics of groundwater level presented obvious seasonal. With the time elapse, the influence of rainfall on the ground water level decreased gradually and the groundwater exploitation gradually increased. The time series analysis method was used to separate trend term, periodic term and randomentry of ground water series, and established the prediction model of groundwater level, the calculated results was consistent with actual situation. Providing the scientific basis to rational use of the karst water, springs protection and Kroundwater monitoring management.