利用空间自相关的中国内陆甲型H1N1流感疫情分析

Analysis on Epidemic of A/H1N1 Flu in China's Mainland Based on Spatial Statistical Methods

为了获得对中国大陆地区2009年爆发的甲型H1N1流感疫情的时空分布的认识,以中国省级甲流疫情的逐月时空数据(时间序列为2009年5月至2010年3月)为研究对象,采用空间自相关方法对其进行了分析。结果发现,甲流传播的集聚性是由弱到强变化的,疫情大致经历了三个阶段:早期的随机分布、中期的扩散以及后期的集中控制;广东、北京、浙江是疫情最为严重的地区,但高高疫情相邻的省份不多;统计学上显著的疫情爆发热点集中在中东部的浙江、江苏、上海、福建等地,聚集重心并未随着时间发生转移。

To map risk of exposure to A/H1N1 flu in China and assess the ability of national interventions and vaccine to control dispersion of the disease.The data on China of every province of A/H1N1 flu from May 2009 to March 2010 were used to map spatial clusters and spatial autocorrelations.Getis＇s G＊ was used to detect the high-risk regions for A/H1N1 in China.The spatial clustering of A/H1N1 in China tends to be stronger gradually,that the epidemic has experienced the process from random（from May to Aug.2009）,pervasion（from Sept.to Nov.2009） to concentration（from Dec.2009 to March 2010）;Guangdong,Beijing and Zhejiang province are the most serious regions of the A/H1N1 outbreak there are a few adjacent provinces with high-high epidemic correlated,the hotspots of the epidemic include Shanghai,Zhejiang,Jiangsu,Fujian and other provinces in central and eastern China,while the center does not move with time goes by.It showed that A/H1N1 has a very high ratio in Nov.2009 to Dec.2009.It is the season that ordinary flu also has a very high ratio.National control measures and vaccine can be very effective at reducing transmission of A/H1N1 flu.