基于ESDA的辽宁省县际经济差异时空分析

Spatio-temporal analysis of inter-county economic differences in Liaoning Province based on ESDA

以县域(含县、县级市、市辖区)为研究单元,采用人均GDP为测度指标,运用ES-DA的方法对2000～2009年辽宁省县际经济差异的时空格局进行分析,认为辽宁省县际经济具有显著的空间自相关,区县经济差异呈现先扩大后缩小的趋势。在局部差异方面,"高-高"类型的区县主要集中在沈阳、大连地区并有向沿海地区扩散的趋势,"低-低"类型的区县主要集中在阜新、朝阳及葫芦岛等所属的广大辽西地区。经济热点区县在空间分布上虽表现出一定的随机性和不稳定性,但仍以沈阳地区、大连地区最为活跃。在进一步从历史发展基础、区位条件、政策因素、空间近邻效应等方面分析辽宁省县际经济差异驱动机制的基础上,指出"辽宁沿海经济带"和"沈阳经济区新型工业化综合配套改革试验区"上升为国家战略后,沈阳、大连在辽宁沿海经济带、沈阳经济区中的核心地位已经确立,但其辐射功能或带动作用仍然有限。

Modern theories on regional development hold that moderate differences in regional economic development facilitate the efficient allocation of resources and the shift of industries between regions, but the oversized differences will weaken the existing division of labor and economic cooperation, or even do harm to the regional economic and social stability. Taking the counties （including counties, county-level cities and municipal districts） of Liaoning as the study object and the GDP per capita as the measuring indicator, this paper analyzes the spatial-temporal pattern of economic differences in Liaoning Province from 2000 to 2009 by way of EDSA. The findings are that, the intercounty economy is highly auto-related, and the inter-county economic differences are enlarged first and dwindled afterward. In terms of local differences, the counties of ＂H-H＂ type are currently found mainly in Shenyang and Dalian, with a trend of extending to other coastal areas; the counties of ＂L-L＂ type are mainly in west Liaoning, including Fuxin, Chaoyang, and Huludao. The spatial distribution of counties with economic hotspots seems to be random and indefinite, with Shenyang and Dalian dominating them. Based on further analysis of the driving mechanism of the inter-county economic differences from the perspectives of historical development, loeational conditions, policy implications and adjacency effect, the paper points out that, Shenyang and Dalian have firmly been established as the core of Liaoning coastal economic zone, and Shenyang economic zone since ＂Liaoning coastal economic zone＂ and ＂new industrialization and comprehensive reform pilot area of Shenyang economic zone＂ have been developed into ＂national strategies＂, but their radiation function and leading role are still limited.