中国农业碳排放与经济发展的实证研究

Empirical study on China's agriculture carbon emissions and economic development

农业生产所导致碳排放大幅增加以及引发的环境问题,越来越受到人们的关注。文中从化肥、农药生产和使用、农业机械使用、灌溉用能、秸秆焚烧等5个方面测算并分析我国碳排放结构特征及区域差异。结果表明:农业碳排放总量从1991-2008年均增长率为2.59%,约占碳排放总量10.43%;秸秆焚烧排放占比例最高为90.60%;农药碳排放年均增长最快为4.71%。聚类发现,我国农业碳排放存在3类区域:主要集中在中东部地区的农业大省的高排放区、中西部地区的一般排放区、发达非农业城市以及落后的西部省份的低排区。农业碳排放强度与人均GDP的EKC检验发现,倒U型曲线关系明显,13省市超过人均国内生产总值20,899元的拐点。最后,据此提出促进我国农业减排的政策建议。

A substantial increase in carbon emissions caused by agricultural production lead to environmental problems,to what people pay more and more attention.We analyzed the carbon emissions structure and regional differences from 5 aspects of fertilizer,pesticide production and agricultural machinery use,irrigation energy use,straw burning.The results showed that annual growth rate of carbon emissions from the agriculture was 2.59%,from 1991 to 2008 accounting for 10.43% of total carbon emissions;in which straw burning emissions accounted for the highest percentage by 90.60%;Pesticide was fastest the average annual growth rate was 4.71%.Clustering found that there were 3 agricultural carbon emissions areas.High-emission areas mainly concentrated in the eastern agricultural province;Moderate-emission areas mainly concentrated in central and western regions,low-emission mainly concentrated in the developed cities and undeveloped western provinces.The EKC tests between agricultural carbon emissions and GDP per capita found significant inverted U-curve relationship.13 provinces and citys were more than 20,899 yuan of the inflection point.Finally,we proposed policies of recommendations to reduce agricultural carbon emissions.