我国房地产业功能定位——基于对相关产业带动效应的分析

Real Estate function In China: based on Drives Effect on the Relevant Industry

通过建立向量自回归模型(VAR),运用Granger因果检验方法、脉冲响应函数实证分析了我国房地产业对相关产业的带动效应,明确我国房地产业功能定位。研究发现房地产业对国民经济冲击表现为持续时间长、力度大,对物质资本型、原材料消耗型产业(工业、建筑业)带动效应明显,而对批发零售业、化学工业、社会服务业的带动效应微弱,说明我国房地产业尚处在数量积累和粗放扩张阶段,仍然"外生于"国民经济之中。

The paper establishes the vector autoregressive model （VAR） and make empirical analysis about the drive effect of China＇s real estate industry on the relevant industry, by using the Granger causality test, impulse response function, which makes real estate industry function clear in China. The results show that the drive effect of the real estate industry on national economy is for long duration and intensity, especially obvious in material capital and the consumption of raw material industry （industry, construction industry）, but weak in the wholesale and retail, chemical industry, social services , which show that it is in the number of accumulated and extensive expansion phase, ＂outside in＂ national economy.