摘要
根据1990～2010年全国国内生产总值(GDP)、FDI在制造业的投资额(FM)、FDI在服务业的投资额(FS)、FDI在房地产业的投资额(FRE)及在教育领域的投资额(FE)的统计数据进行基于VAR模型的实证分析,认为长期看,外商在制造业的投资额(FM)和在服务业的投资额(FS)的增加导致全国GDP的增加,外商在房地产业的投资额(FRE)以及在教育领域的投资额(FE)与GDP反向变动;短期看,对全国经济发展的短期影响程度由高到低,依次是FDI在服务业的投资额(FS)、在制造业的投资额(FM)和在教育领域的投资额(FE)以及在房地产业的投资额(FRE)。建议以国务院颁布的《外商投资产业指导目录》为导向,积极利用外资及优化外商投资结构,在发挥外资对我国经济的积极推动作用的同时尽量减少外资的负面影响。
The paper analyses the relations among GDP and the foreign direct investment in manufacturing industry （FM）, service industry （FS）, real estate （FRE） and education （FE） from related statistical data from 1990 to 2010 based on VAR model, conclusions are as follows ： in the long run, the increases of FM and FS lead to the rise of GDP, and the FRE and FE change in the opposite direction with GDP. In the short term, accounting from the influence to national economic development from high to low ranking, it is FS, FM, FE and FRE. We suggest that the decision - maker should make decision based on long - term goal guided by the Catalogue of Industries for Guiding Foreign Investment, when utilizing and optimizing the structure of foreign direct investment. So the role of FDI to drive economic growth should be given full attention to, and at the same time, reducing the negative influence.
出处
《经济问题》
CSSCI
北大核心
2011年第11期46-49,共4页
On Economic Problems
关键词
VAR模型
协整检验
误差修正模型
脉冲响应函数
VAR model
cointegration test
error correction model
impulse response function
