基于演化博弈理论的电力需求侧管理研究

Study on DSM Based on Evolutionary Game Theory

建立居民用户参与DSM的激励机制对于我国DSM工作实施效果具有重大的影响。运用演化博弈理论构建了居民用户用电方式选择的演化博弈模型,运用复制动态方程方法对演化博弈的不同稳定状态进行系统性分析结果表明,居民用户对不同用电方式感知效用的大小及DSM激励和惩罚力度的大小共同对居民用户用电方式的选择产生影响,在一定条件下,单纯增加DSM激励和惩罚力度会对DSM的实施效果产生负面影响。

The establishment of the incentive system of resident participation on DSM has a significant impact on the implementation effect of DSM. The article creates a evolutionary game model of residential electricity consumption mode, makes systematic analysis on the alternative stable state with the dynamic replicate equation method.The results reveal that the residential users＇perceptual utility of different electricity consumption modes, as well as the magnitude of rewards and punishments of DSM, affects the residential users choice of electricity consumption modes. Under certain condition, simply increasing the magnitude of rewards and pu.nishments of DSM will have a negative impact.