区域虚拟休耕规模与空间布局研究

Simulating Fallow Land at Regional Scale:Size and Spatial Distribution

在分析国内耕地利用现状和国外休耕研究成果的基础上,提出开展土地休耕是中国未来耕地保护的可选模式,以提高耕地质量,改善区域生态环境,促进耕地可持续利用,保障国家长期的粮食生产能力和食品安全。结合中国粮食安全需求保障确定休耕现实规模,并综合自然质量条件、耕地利用强度和经济保障水平3个方面进行休耕区域适宜性空间评价,确定休耕空间布局。以江苏省通州市为例对不同发展情景下休耕规模和布局的虚拟实证分析结果表明,不同发展情景下通州市休耕现实规模在661～6 410hm2之间,休耕区域主要分布在石港镇、骑岸镇、川姜镇等镇。虚拟研究为中国未来开展土地休耕提供了有益的参考。

Based on the analysis of current status of land use in China and the research findings on land retirement from abroad,the authors suggested that land retirement could be an alternative practice for future cultivated land protection in China.Land retirement as a part of sustainable land use,can improve the quality of cultivated land and regional ecological environment,and ensure national long-term food production capacity and food security.Considering the requirement of national food security,a feasible size of land retirement was estimated.An index system consisting of natural environmental quality,utilization intensity of cultivated land and socio-economic development,was constructed to evaluate the regional suitability of land retirement for identify suitable sites for land retirement.Virtual research on land retirement of Tongzhou City of Jiangsu Province was carried out under different development scenarios.The results show that the practicable size of land retirement in Tongzhou City ranged from 661 hm2 to 6 410 hm2 under different development scenarios.The land retirement areas were mainly distributed in Shigang Town,Qi′an Town and Chuanjiang Town,etc.The virtual research provides a useful reference for the future land retirement policy making in China.