福建省土地生态安全动态评价

Evaluation on Land Ecological Security of Fujian Province

应用突变级数法对福建省土地生态安全(2000—2008年)进行了定量评估和动态趋势分析。该方法避免了人为制定权重的主观性及主观判断安全标准的不确定性。结果表明,福建省土地生态安全在逐年改善,从一般安全级(Ⅲ级)转变为较安全级(Ⅳ级)。这种转变主要建立在社会经济系统和环境调控系统安全不断改善的基础上,而自然环境系统始终在一般安全等级(Ⅲ)间波动。其中,环境压力子系统从2003年开始迅速下降,人口压力子系统始终处于上下波动,土地生态安全形势不容乐观。

The land ecological security status and trends of Fujian Province from 2000 to 2008 were evaluated using the quantitative catastrophe progression method（CPM）.The CPM avoids the subjectivity in traditional weighting evaluation methods and has less uncertainty in making the standard of security.The results show that the land ecological security of the province was improved gradually from acceptably secure（Ⅲ） to fairly secure（Ⅳ）.The increasing security was mainly based on the improving socioeconomic system and environmental control system,while the natural environment system was still fluctuating around acceptably secure（Ⅲ）.Specifically,the security of the environment stress subsystem decreased rapidly from 2003,and that of the population pressure subsystem experienced ups and downs.The land ecological security is not optimistic in the future.